Cost Comparison — Vendor vs DIY
Source for vendor numbers: 07_pricing_offer.pdf — Green Jungle offer for Association 3, 12.03.2026, total €82 583.92 Source for DIY numbers: diy_proposal/06_bom_full.md, locked subsystems 1+2+3+4 total €64 586 (was €88 296 in the original DIY proposal) OPEX section refreshed: 2026-04-11 against live Maltese tariffs (Enemalta non-residential, WSC, Liquigas, ARUC, DIER min wage, Indomio Gozo commercial avg) and the locked decisions in _user_decisions_log.md
TL;DR
The vendor's bid is €82 584 but that's not a real number — the missing scope adds €10 840 to get to a working facility. Apples-to-apples, the vendor costs ~€95 108. The locked DIY (subsystems 1+2+3+4 priced 2026-04-11) costs €64 586, a saving of ~€30 500 on capex alone.
The bigger story is what the customer actually gets for the same money — and how the picture changes once labor, rent, ARUC and insurance are in the OPEX model (full breakdown below).
Side-by-side subsystem comparison
| Subsystem | Vendor € | DIY locked € | Δ € | What the delta buys |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lighting + CO₂ enrichment | 15 596 | 14 946 | – 650 | Kingbrite LM301H bare-board kit + Meanwell HLG-600H drivers, on-board UV-A (no separate UVC), SuperPro GEN-10 LPG burner × 2 (no bottled CO₂), UV-A staff goggles. Solar-paired so EVO premium dropped. |
| HVAC | 17 330 | 9 532 | – 7 798 | Hyundai 18 000 BTU × 12 + 12 000 BTU × 6 from Ventura Malta at -20 % discount, F-gas install included, no spares (Ventura local stock + same-day swap). N+2 redundant per flowering room. Saves €7.8 k vs vendor. |
| Dehumidification | 7 160 | 7 160 | 0 | Same compressor sizing as vendor (desiccant rejected: would be +€4 452 net even after AC reduction). Compressor reject heat is what justifies 6 × AC per flowering room. |
| Sensors + controls | 11 346 | 4 354 | – 6 992 | Full local operation (no Growlink cloud), Sonoff + Home Assistant + InfluxDB + Grafana on Pi 5. NSPanel Pro touch panels dropped (HA mobile app sufficient), Atlas EC/pH main dropped (Nido handles it). |
| Irrigation + water | 14 887 | 4 354 | – 10 533 | Nido ONE V2 Italian fertigation controller + Mauser 1 m³ IBC food-grade reservoir + air pump + ozonator (replaces €3 900 nanobubble) + user's existing RO valued at €900 for parity. Single biggest subsystem saving. Substrate moves to OPEX. |
| Air circulation (fans) | 1 501 | 2 060 | + 559 | AC Infinity Cloudline instead of generic €79 fans → 3–5 × expected life, net cheaper over 5-year TCO |
| Tables + drainage | 7 322 | 6 950 | – 372 | Same spec, direct-sourced |
| Humidifier | 900 | 800 | – 100 | Same spec, direct-sourced |
| Electrical cabinet + install | 5 450 | 6 020 | + 570 | Polish electrician pre-wire + Maltese installer sign-off, no Siemens software licence liability |
| Extras (HVAC mounting) | 1 560 | — | – 1 560 | Folded into HVAC install line |
| Carbon filtration / odour control | ❌ not billed | 2 820 | + 2 820 | Required by Malta licensing + neighbour complaints |
| Backup power (Ecoflow Tier 1) | ❌ not billed | 3 200 | + 3 200 | 30–60 min ride-through during Malta grid blips, graceful lighting shutdown |
| Security + access control | ❌ not billed | 2 430 | + 2 430 | Malta cannabis licensing compliance |
| Mechanical room / rooftop | ❌ not billed | 1 000 | + 1 000 | Condenser placement, penetrations, cable runs |
| TOTAL | € 82 584 | € 64 586 | – 17 998 | |
| Adjusted vendor (hidden scope added) | € ~95 108 | € 64 586 | – 30 522 |
Subsystems 1+2+3+4 are LOCKED as of 2026-04-11. The remaining lines (air circulation, tables, humidifier, electrical, hidden-scope) are still at the original DIY proposal numbers and may shift slightly when locked. See docs/diy_proposal/06_bom_full.md for the authoritative line-by-line and _user_decisions_log.md for the rationale behind each locked decision.
The two ways to read this
Read 1: "DIY is €5 712 more expensive on the bid"
If you compare raw bid totals, DIY is €88 296 vs vendor €82 584 = €5 712 more. This is the number the vendor will point at if the customer shops the DIY proposal back to them.
Read 2: "DIY is €6 812 CHEAPER once hidden scope is real"
The vendor build is not operable at €82 584. The customer will spend another €10–12 k on CO₂ hardware, carbon filters, backup power, security, mechanical room, drip lines, tank temp, and downstream monitoring — the stuff that doesn't magically appear on install day. Once you add that to both sides of the comparison:
- Vendor (adjusted): €95 108
- DIY: €88 296
- DIY saves: €6 812
Read 3: "The price is roughly the same, the facility quality is very different"
The honest read: both builds cost €88–95 k. The price delta isn't why the customer should choose DIY. The reason is what they get for the same money:
| Quality axis | Vendor | DIY |
|---|---|---|
| Will the flowering HVAC actually hold 24 °C in August? | No (~50 % under-sized) | Yes (N+2 redundant, sized correctly) |
| What happens when one HVAC unit fails mid-flower? | Crop dead in 4 hours, replacement in 4–6 weeks | Temps rise 2 °C for 48 h, €500 swap in 3 hours |
| Is the €10 k lighting line named-chip? | No (Chinese unknown at €399/fixture) | Yes (Samsung LM301H with Mars Hydro / Spider Farmer warranty) |
| Does CO₂ enrichment actually work? | Controllers quoted but no hardware | Yes, full stack with worker safety interlock |
| Does automation survive an internet outage? | Partial (Growlink + Autogrow both cloud-leaning) | Yes, fully local, runs forever offline |
| Can you get alerts at 3 AM when the dehu dies? | Only if internet is up | Yes, via Pushover / Telegram over local cellular backup |
| Can you expand to a new room later? | Buy more Growlink, bind to vendor | Add Sonoff for €50/sensor, no brand lock-in |
| Is the facility compliant with Malta licensing on day 1? | No (no carbon, no security, no access control) | Yes |
| Is any component a single point of failure that kills a crop? | Yes (the UCHA60-TDC) | No |
Annual running costs (DIY) — full OPEX, bottom-up
This section replaces the previous compressed 5-year TCO with an itemized full-OPEX model built bottom-up from the BOM and refreshed against real Maltese tariffs (pulled 2026-04-11). Numbers are tagged HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW for confidence, so the customer can argue any line and replace LOW-confidence estimates with real quotes as they come in.
Key change since the previous TCO version:
- Electricity is much cheaper than we assumed. The €0.22/kWh figure used in the old TCO was a residential-grade reference; the actual Enemalta non-residential bands at 235 MWh/year give a weighted-average effective rate of ~€0.151/kWh excl. VAT — about a third lower.
- CO₂ is now propane-burner, not bottled liquid CO₂. The €720 of CO₂-tank capex in the BOM stays as a one-time spend, but the recurring cost flips to LPG at Liquigas Malta commercial rates (€1.25–€1.50/kg). This is ~80 % cheaper than bottled CO₂ refills, with the trade-off that combustion adds heat and water vapour — the model reflects the resulting HVAC and dehumidifier penalty.
- Labor, rent, insurance, and ARUC licensing are now included (the old TCO punted them as "same for both builds"). They are not the same — they are the largest single cost driver and the customer needs them in the picture to plan cash flow.
- Cycles per year are presented as a range (3 / 4 / 5) instead of a single assumption. Cycle count is the biggest knob the customer can turn.
OPEX summary table
| Category | Notes | 3 cycles/yr | 4 cycles/yr | 5 cycles/yr | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electricity (grid, before solar offset) | 233 MWh/yr facility (no nanobubble, no NSPanels) + propane HVAC penalty | 35 500 | 35 500 | 35 500 | HIGH |
| Water + sewage (~694 m³/yr tap, post-RO reject) | WSC non-residential bands | 1 700 | 1 700 | 1 700 | HIGH |
| Propane (CO₂ enrichment) | ~200 kg/yr LPG @ Liquigas commercial | 250 | 300 | 350 | MEDIUM |
| Nutrients (Plagron Hydro A+B + additives) | €1 000/cycle midpoint, growtent.pl | 3 000 | 4 000 | 5 000 | MEDIUM |
| Substrate (Grodan rockwool: 180 Grotop Master slabs + 360 Delta cubes per cycle, drain-to-waste, 1 slab per 2 plants) | €1 379/cycle = 180 × €6.52 + 360 × €0.57 — verified live growtent.pl 2026-04-11 | 4 137 | 5 516 | 6 895 | HIGH |
| Carbon filter replacement | BOM line (Phresh × 4) | 640 | 640 | 640 | HIGH |
| HVAC + dehum maintenance reserve | Annualised from €8 k / 5 yr | 1 600 | 1 600 | 1 600 | MEDIUM |
| Consumables (cleaning, IPM, blades, Bluelab calibration fluid) | €300/cycle midpoint | 900 | 1 200 | 1 500 | MEDIUM |
| Lab testing (per-batch THC/CBD/microbial/HM) | 2 batches/cycle × €400 | 2 400 | 3 200 | 4 000 | MEDIUM |
| Software / cloud (Home Assistant + Grafana, self-hosted) | DIY structural advantage | 0 | 0 | 0 | HIGH |
| Variable subtotal | 50 127 | 53 656 | 57 185 | ||
| ARUC annual licence (Cat 3, 101–250 members) | aruc.mt licensing guidelines | 13 000 | 13 000 | 13 000 | HIGH |
| Rent (~250 m² Gozo industrial @ €12.24/m²/mo) | indomio.com.mt avg | 37 000 | 37 000 | 37 000 | MEDIUM |
| Insurance (property + liability + cannabis loading) | Quote-only — placeholder | 3 500 | 3 500 | 3 500 | LOW |
| Labor (1× head grower + trim crew/cycle) | DIER min wage 2026 €11 931, head grower €25–30 k | 39 500 | 43 500 | 47 500 | MEDIUM |
| Waste disposal (green waste + spent rockwool) | per cycle, rockwool is heavier than coco | 600 | 800 | 1 000 | LOW |
| Fixed + labor subtotal | 93 600 | 97 800 | 102 000 | ||
| TOTAL annual OPEX | € 143 727 | € 151 456 | € 159 185 | ||
| Effective cost per cycle | OPEX ÷ cycles | € 47 909 | € 37 864 | € 31 837 |
The headline cycle insight: per-cycle OPEX drops by ~€16 k between 3 and 5 cycles per year. Energy, rent, ARUC and insurance are fixed regardless of cycle count, so amortising them over more harvests is the single biggest cost lever the operator controls. The DIY HVAC + automation only pays for itself if the facility actually runs ≥4 cycles/year.
Solar offset (planned, not modeled here): Decision log #6 commits to solar power as part of the build-out. Once panel kWp is fixed I'll add a grid + solar electricity scenario alongside the grid-only number above. As a rough order of magnitude, a 25–30 kWp rooftop array on a south-facing Gozo roof yields ~40–45 MWh/yr — enough to cover the lights-on photoperiod load year-round and drop annual electricity OPEX from ~€35 500 to ~€18 000–€20 000 net of feed-in. That's a ~€16 k/yr swing that materially changes the per-cycle numbers below. Treat the electricity line as the upper bound until solar is locked.
Where the numbers come from
1. Electricity — €35 500/yr (HIGH, grid-only)
Bottom-up from the BOM, validated against the docs/diy_proposal/06_bom_full.md equipment list.
| Subsystem | kWh/month | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Top lighting (24 × ~520 W wall-plug) | 4 492 | 12 h × 30 d, flowering only |
| Intercanopy + veg + clone + UVC | 2 469 | Mixed photoperiods |
| HVAC (12 × Midea 18, 4 × M12, 2 × M9) | 7 563 | Variable runtime, summer-derated |
| Dehumidification (2 × 1.6 kW + 4 × 0.8 kW) | 2 361 | 70 % flower / 55 % veg duty |
| Air circulation + exhaust | 1 749 | 24/7 recirc + carbon scrub on lights-off |
| Irrigation + water loop (RO, nanobubble, pumps, heater/chiller) | 645 | Bursts |
| Automation + security (Pi 5, iHost, sensors, NVR, cameras) | 234 | Continuous baseline |
| Humidifier (seasonal) | 72 | |
| Subtotal facility load | 19 585 | ≈ 235 MWh/yr |
| + Propane burner penalty (HVAC + dehum offset) | ~118 | See §3 below |
| Total billed consumption | ~19 700 | ≈ 236.6 MWh/yr |
Cost calculation against Enemalta Non-Residential bands (pulled 2026-04-11, excl. VAT — VAT recoverable for the registered Association):
| Band | kWh range | Rate (€/kWh) | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 – 2 000 | 0.1215 | 243.00 |
| 2 | 2 001 – 6 000 | 0.1275 | 510.00 |
| 3 | 6 001 – 10 000 | 0.1373 | 549.20 |
| 4 | 10 001 – 20 000 | 0.1485 | 1 485.00 |
| 5 | 20 001 – 60 000 | 0.1613 | 6 452.00 |
| 6 | 60 001 – 100 000 | 0.1500 | 6 000.00 |
| 7 | 100 001 – 236 600 | 0.1403 | 19 165.00 |
| Annual triple-phase service charge | 360.00 | ||
| Maximum Demand Tariff (peak ~50 kW × €20.50) | 1 025.00 | ||
| Subtotal excl. VAT | € 35 789 |
Effective average: €0.1513/kWh — vs €0.22/kWh used in the old TCO. That single correction is ~€19 k/year cheaper than the old number claimed. This is the largest single delta in the new model.
2. Water + sewage — €1 700/yr (HIGH)
950 L/day post-RO facility demand × 50 % RO recovery = ~1 900 L/day tap intake × 365 = 694 m³/yr.
WSC Non-Residential tariff (pulled 2026-04-11, excl. VAT):
| Band | m³ range | Rate (€/m³) | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ≤ 168 | 1.9950 | 335.16 |
| 2 | 169 – 40 000 | 2.3750 | 1 249.25 |
| Annual service charge (estimate) | ~70 | ||
| Sewage component (bundled in WSC bill) | ~50 | ||
| Subtotal | ~€ 1 700 |
Improving RO recovery to 65 % (commercial reverse-osmosis with rejection-side recycle) drops tap intake to 1 460 L/day → **€1 240/yr**, a €460 saving for ~€800 of additional plumbing. Worth doing in year 2 when cash flow allows.
3. Propane CO₂ enrichment — €300/yr propane + €170/yr electricity penalty (MEDIUM)
The customer is going with a propane burner instead of bottled liquid CO₂. The €720 of CO₂-tank capex in docs/diy_proposal/06_bom_full.md:15-19 becomes a sunk cost that should be replaced with a Johnson CO₂GEN-style burner (~€600 BOM swap) — but the recurring cost picture is dramatically better.
Combustion stoichiometry (clean propane burn):
- C₃H₈ + 5 O₂ → 3 CO₂ + 4 H₂O + 2 220 kJ/mol
- 1 kg propane → 3.0 kg CO₂ + 1.6 kg water vapour + 14.0 kWh of heat
Facility CO₂ demand (2 × 24 m² flowering rooms, ~16 m² canopy each):
- Plant uptake at peak photosynthesis: ~4 g CO₂/m²/h × 16 m² × 2 rooms = ~128 g/h facility
- Plus ~30 % leakage replacement → ~166 g/h during 12 h photoperiod
- Daily: ~2.0 kg CO₂/day → annual ~600 kg CO₂/yr (mid-cycle estimate)
- Propane required: 600 / 3 ≈ 200 kg propane/yr
- Cost at Liquigas Malta commercial loose €1.50/kg (25 kg cylinder rate is €1.25/kg, mid-estimate €300/yr).
Side-effect penalty:
- Heat output: 200 kg × 14 kWh = 2 800 kWh/yr of additional heat → HVAC must remove this; at split-AC COP ~3 → 933 kWh/yr extra electricity
- Water vapour: 200 kg × 1.6 = 320 kg/yr extra water added to the room → Dehumidifier must remove it at ~0.7 kWh/L → 224 kWh/yr extra electricity
- Total penalty: ~1 157 kWh/yr ≈ €175/yr (already folded into the electricity line above)
Vs bottled liquid CO₂ (BOM original assumption, 4 × €180 refill ≈ €720 per ~200 kg refilled):
- 600 kg CO₂/yr ÷ ~50 kg/cylinder ≈ 12 refills/yr × €180 = €2 160/yr before delivery
- Propane saves ~€1 700/yr on the consumable, even after the electricity penalty is paid
- The trade-off is real but lopsided in propane's favour for any facility that doesn't already have an industrial CO₂ supply line
4. Nutrients — €3 000–€5 000/yr (MEDIUM)
Autogrow A+B + CalMag + pH up/down at EC ~2.0 across ~150 plants in flower at any time. Industry norm for a 2-flowering-room operation is €800–€1 500 per cycle depending on whether the operator runs lab-grade General Hydroponics or wholesale Polish-distributor equivalent. Midpoint €1 000/cycle. Replace with real quote from Hydroponic.pl when first feed schedule is finalized.
5. Substrate — €4 137–€6 895/yr (HIGH, verified live pricing)
Locked: Grodan rockwool slabs, Dutch tomato-style, drain-to-waste (decision #12 + #32). Sourced from growtent.pl alongside the Plagron nutrients, single Polish supplier for the whole pharma-grade hydro stack. Per-cycle cost is €1 379/cycle, made up of:
- 180 × Grodan Grotop Master slabs @ €6.52 = €1 173.60
- 360 × Grodan Delta cubes @ €0.57 = €205.20
- 1 slab per 2 plants, full facility flush
Pricing verified live on growtent.pl on 2026-04-11 — promoted from MEDIUM to HIGH confidence. Roughly 2.3× the cost of the original coco assumption. The decision was made on quality + sterility grounds, not cost: rockwool slabs give predictable root-zone EC, no risk of carryover pathogens between cycles, and integrate cleanly with the Nido ONE V2 fertigation schedule. Decision log #39 explicitly flagged this OPEX delta.
6. Carbon filter replacement — €640/yr (HIGH)
Direct from BOM line 124: 4 replacement Phresh filters @ €160 = €640. Annual replacement cycle on flowering exhaust; veg/dry filters last longer.
7. HVAC + dehumidifier maintenance reserve — €1 600/yr (MEDIUM)
Annualised from the existing 5-year line item (€8 000 over 5 years, ~6–8 split replacements at €500 each plus annual coil cleans). This is the maintenance line that makes the Midea N+2 architecture viable — losing one €500 split mid-flower triggers a 3-hour swap, not a crop loss.
8. Consumables — €900–€1 500/yr (MEDIUM)
Pruning blades, gloves, calibration fluids for Atlas EC/pH probes, IPM (predator mites + sticky cards), sanitation chemicals. €300/cycle midpoint, scales with cycles.
9. Lab testing — €2 400–€4 000/yr (MEDIUM)
ARUC compliance requires per-batch THC/CBD potency, microbial, and heavy-metal screening before product can go to members. At ~€400/batch and 2 batches per cycle (one per flowering room), this is the most cycle-sensitive line after labor.
10. ARUC annual licence — €13 000/yr (HIGH)
From aruc.mt licensing guidelines (pulled 2026-04-11):
| Category | Members | Annual fee |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | up to 50 | € 1 000 |
| 2 | 51 – 100 | € 5 000 |
| 3 | 101 – 250 | € 13 000 |
Plus a one-time €1 000 application fee paid before the In-Principle Licence is granted. Association 3's facility (2 flowering rooms, ~32 m² canopy producing maybe 4–6 kg dried flower per cycle) is sized for the Cat 3 member band — splitting it into smaller categories means leaving capacity on the table.
11. Rent — €37 000/yr (MEDIUM)
Indomio.com.mt commercial Gozo average: €12.24/m²/month = €146.88/m²/yr. Facility footprint estimate: ~250 m² total (2 × 24 m² flowering + veg + mothers + dry + wet + storage + corridor + circulation). Replace with the actual Cultiva lease number once it's finalized.
12. Insurance — €3 500/yr (LOW)
Quote-only in Malta — no published rate exists. Maltese commercial insurers (MAPFRE, Elmo, GasanMamo, Bonnici, MUIA) all require a site survey before quoting cannabis facilities. Public benchmarks for non-cannabis Maltese commercial property+liability run €1 500–€3 000/yr at this asset value; cannabis loading typically adds 50–100 %. Mid-range placeholder: €3 500/yr. This line is the single biggest unknown — if the insurer demands €8 000+, the OPEX picture changes meaningfully.
13. Labor — €39 500–€47 500/yr (MEDIUM)
Malta DIER 2026 minimum wage is €229.44/week (€11 931/year, full-time, 18+).
- 1 × Head grower at €25 000/yr gross + ~10 % employer NI = €27 500/yr
- Casual harvest/trim crew: €4 000 per cycle for a 2-week trim crew (members can reduce this materially; cooperative model is the customer's structural cost advantage)
- Total scales: 3 cycles → €27 500 + 12 000 = €39 500; 4 cycles → €43 500; 5 cycles → €47 500
For a member-cooperative model where members contribute trim hours, the casual labor line can drop ~50 %. Flagged MEDIUM because the trim labor cost depends entirely on the cooperative's labor-sharing contract.
14. Waste disposal — €450–€750/yr (LOW)
Green waste removal at €150/cycle for stem/root debris and spent substrate. Most Maltese green-waste haulers don't publish rates; estimate from comparable horticultural operations.
Cross-check vs old TCO
The previous TCO (now replaced) used:
| Old TCO line | Old value | New equivalent | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Energy (21 MWh × 60 mo × €0.22) | 277 200 / 5 yr = 55 440 / yr | 35 500 / yr | −19 940 ✅ Real Enemalta tariff |
| Water + nutrients combined | 36 000 / 5 yr = 7 200 / yr | (1 700 + 4 000) = 5 700 / yr | −1 500 ✅ Real WSC tariff + per-cycle nutrients |
| Substrate (was bundled in nutrients) | (in above line) | 5 516 / yr | +5 516 ⚠️ Rockwool ~2.3× coco — locked decision, verified pricing |
| HVAC + dehum + lighting replacement | (8 000 + 7 000) / 5 = 3 000 / yr | 1 600 / yr | −1 400 ✅ Lighting replacement was over-conservative for Mars Hydro warranty |
| Cloud fees | 0 | 0 | 0 ✅ HA structural advantage holds |
| Old utilities + consumables subtotal | 65 640 / yr | 53 656 / yr (4 cycles) | −11 984 / yr |
The old TCO was ~€12 k/year too high on utilities and consumables, even after absorbing the rockwool substrate hit. The driver is the electricity tariff correction; the rockwool decision claws back ~€3 100/yr but is still net positive.
Refreshed 5-year TCO
Using the 4-cycle/year midpoint:
| Line | DIY |
|---|---|
| Capex (year 0, locked subsystems 1+2+3+4 + remaining unlocked lines) | 64 586 |
| Annual OPEX × 5 (4 cycles/yr midpoint) | 757 280 |
| 5-year total cost of ownership | € 821 866 |
The capex line drops €23 710 from the original €88 296 (Hyundai/Ventura HVAC saves €6 k, Nido + IBC + air pump irrigation pivot saves €10.5 k, Atlas + NSPanel drops save €1 k, lighting bare-board kit saves €4 k). The OPEX line ticks up because the locked rockwool substrate is ~2.4× the cost of coco, but the headline is still ~€7 k cheaper over 5 years.
For comparison, the original vendor capex (€82 584) on the same OPEX baseline plus the €10 840 hidden-scope correction plus the additional €13 k of vendor-build TCO disadvantages identified above (Chinese HVAC replacement, lighting replacement, Growlink fees) = € 863 704 over 5 years. The locked DIY is now ~€42 k cheaper over 5 years (~5 % saving), and the gap widens further once solar is modeled.
The honest read: capex differences narrowed by the locked decisions, but they're still meaningful (~€42 k over 5 years). The question that matters is no longer "DIY vs vendor", it's "3 vs 4 vs 5 cycles" — that single decision moves ~€32 k over 5 years, and "solar yes/no" — which moves another ~€80 k over 5 years.
Sensitivity analysis
| Knob | Effect on annual OPEX |
|---|---|
| Electricity tariff ±10 % | ±€3 580 |
| HVAC duty cycle ±15 % (e.g. mild vs hot summer) | ±€800 |
| 3 → 5 cycles per year | +€15 800 OPEX, but −€31 200 cost per cycle (huge net win) |
| Insurance lands at €8 000 instead of €3 500 | +€4 500 |
| Member trim labor → cooperative model | −€6 000 to −€10 000 |
| RO recovery 50 % → 65 % | −€460 |
| ARUC drops to Cat 2 (≤100 members) | −€8 000 |
Confidence summary
- HIGH confidence (real tariffs, BOM-cited): Electricity, water, carbon filters, ARUC licence, software (9 lines)
- MEDIUM confidence (industry norm, replace with real quote): Propane, nutrients, substrate, HVAC maint reserve, consumables, lab testing, rent, labor (8 lines)
- LOW confidence (placeholder pending quote/decision): Insurance, waste disposal (2 lines)
Lines that still need real customer-side input
- Insurance — get a Maltese broker survey done before signing the lease. This is the largest single unknown.
- Cycle count target — operator must commit to 3, 4, or 5 cycles before pricing membership and product
- Member count — drives ARUC category and per-batch testing volume
- Actual rent from the Cultiva lease — replaces the Indomio Gozo average
- Trim labor model — cooperative member-hours vs casual paid crew
Not included in OPEX
- Packaging, branding, distribution to members — depends on Association's chosen product format
- Member acquisition / marketing — Association-side, not facility-side
- One-time setup costs — already in capex (€88 296)